News in the boardrooms is that the recession is over (GDP is turning around). News on the street is much the opposite (job loss rates outweigh job creation rates). A survey done by the Wall Street Journal shows that a majority of 47 economists surveyed believe that the US is out of this crippling recession. Although this is welcomed news for sure, one must understand what this precisely indicates. The suggestion is that we’ve finally hit rock bottom; that we don’t seem to have enough propulsion from our past mistakes to crash further into the dirt. So, with our fiscal fever at a stable 102.8, we can agreeably accept that we’re hurting and now take solace in the fact that we’ve survived the worst of it.

But hopefully this hasn’t given you a platform to jump to conclusions. A recession ending doesn’t mean job growth will spike up or the unemployment rate, currently at 9.5%, will spike down. The opinions are based on the Gross Domestic Product’s expected growth of 2.4% in the third quarter and the manufacturing industry’s growing pulse amid the government’s many initiatives, including the now popular “cash for clunkers” program.

Although these economists suggest that the slight drop in joblessness in July spells a turnaround for unemployment, “another sign” of the end of the recession, most know that this content is high in sugar. The recession has little to do with unemployment rates dropping and labor figures glistening. In fact, at the end of the recession of the 1990s, the labor figures did not begin to bank north until 18 months later. Of course the fact that jobless rates fell for the first time in 15 months in July is a very good thing, but one should remember not to chew on more than they bite off. Most forecasters predict that unemployment will rise to 10% by the fall, with underemployment rates due to skyrocket to double that level before the years is done.

However, a riot of rhetoric will jump from your television screens and onto your newspaper’s pages that the “recession is over!!!!!” That a “great majority of economists” say so and therefore must be believed. However, the number of economists that made up the majority was actually 27. 27 out of 47. That’s 57%. I would keep that bottle of champagne corked for a few more moments if I were you.
This doesn’t mean that the Obama administration and the Fed are doing poorly. Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said that the Fed “has averted Armageddon.” The US hasn’t seen “Depression 2.0″ so someone is definitely doing something right. The expected GDP growth will probably remain above 2% at an annualized rate through the first half of next year, yet another positive sign of progress. Many simply fear that all the ornamental “mission accomplished” battleship rhetoric may be dangerously premature in an economy that’s sitting on a knife-edge.

The unemployment rate will not go back to pre-recession levels until at least a year passes; this is nearly a bankable fact. The miracle turnaround we’re all hoping for won’t be found anywhere besides a Disney movie. If these hopes are keeping you from settling into a school program that will have you ready for a high paying job down the line, you need to readjust your reception. The long part of the haul is still ahead of us, and most economists will tell you, now is the time to seek shelter in academia so that you have a puncher’s chance at prosperity once the economy flips on its head. Many certification programs take less than a year to complete and will give you the edge you need to get that career you want. This recession is an opportunity to make a change. Check out the programs available to you now.