You are likely aware that experts are predicting a severe shortage in health care workers over the next several years, but you may not be aware that experts are also predicting an immense shortage in doctors as well. In fact, the Association of American Medical Colleges has predicted that the shortage will swell to more than 124,000 physicians by the time 2025 rolls around. This problem will be particularly acute in the area of primary care.

“Due to population growth, aging and other factors, demand will outpace supply through at least 2025,” wrote Michael J. Dill and Edward S. Salsbert in a report they prepared for the Association of American Medical Colleges Centers for Workforce Studies. “Simply educating and training more physicians will not be enough to address these shortages. Complex changes such as improving efficiency, reconfiguring the way some services are delivered, and making better use of our physicians will also be needed.”

There are a number of factors leading to the shortfall in physicians, but it is being primarily attributed to the fact that the US population is expected to grow by 50% by 2025 and that the population of patients who are older than 65 is expected to double within this same period of time. As such, analysts predict that the demand for physicians will grow by a whopping 26.3% by 2025, which means we will need a total of 859,300 physicians to meet the rising demand. Unfortunately, current trends indicate there will only be about 734,900 physicians at that time, which means we will be facing a shortage of 124,400 physicians.

The projected shortage in physicians is actually nothing new, as the Association of American Medical Colleges had previously released a report in 2006 indicating that a 30% increase in physicians will be necessary to prevent a shortage from occurring. The new report, however, indicates that the largest shortage will be in the area of surgical and primary care specialties.

“There is broad recognition of the central role of primary care in the nation’s healthcare delivery system,” continued the report. “Until recently, though, health workforce projections have largely neglected primary care. Our baseline projections produce a greater shortage in primary care than in any other specialty area. In fact, the projected shortage in primary care accounts for more than a third of the total projected shortage in 2025 (37% of the overall physician shortage, or about 46,000 full-time equivalent primary-care doctors).”

The report also indicated that inpatient care will experience a great need as well.

“If current patterns continue, the hospital inpatient setting is projected to experience the single greatest rise in demand (36.6%),” the report continued. “All the other settings are projected to face increases that, while still substantial, are notably less than the growth in demand for physicians in inpatient settings. Indeed, surgery is the only other setting with projected cumulative growth in demand that exceeds 25% by 2025. Nonetheless, the projected increase exceeds 20% for every setting.”

Another concern regarding these projections is the fact that they were made based upon current medical trends, which means a change in these trends could potentially result in an even greater shortage than anticipated. For example, if younger physicians decide to work fewer hours than older physicians, it will result in a need for even more physicians to care for the population. Furthermore, the push to make medical coverage available to all Americans will only worsen the problem, as there will be less doctors available to handle all of those needing to receive care. Experts predict that this could lead to an additional shortage of 31,000 physicians.

Even an increase in the number of students enrolled inn medical schools will not completely take care of the physician shortage. According to the report, even implementing a “robust expansion” will still result in a deficit of 70,000 physicians.

“Given these projections, assuring access to healthcare will require more than the expected enrollment increase in U.S. medical schools and an expansion in graduate medical education,” the report said. “Increasing the number of U.S. doctors is necessary, but it will not be sufficient.”

The report went on to say, “Shortages are likely to be manifested in a number of ways, some subtle and some not. This includes longer waiting times for appointments, increased travel distances to get care, shorter visit times with physicians, expanded use of non-physicians for care, and higher prices. If shortages are extensive, in some cases it will lead to a loss of access altogether.”

In addition increasing the capacity of medical schools, the report recommends taking the following actions in order to prevent the shortage from occurring:

· Use non-physician clinicians as well as other health care professionals to help improve productivity
· Promote the implementation of flexible scheduling and allow part-time work
· Recruit minorities to enroll in medical schools, as research shows minorities are more likely to work in areas that are underserved, which will likely be the areas that are the hardest hit by the shortage
· Improve workforce studies and data collection