The landscape is shifting for college admissions officers. Not to long ago, these folks could pretty much handpick the composition of an incoming freshman class, but not these days. The number of students applying to colleges and universities is on the increase – and students are applying to a greater number of schools. As a result, it is getting harder to predict an incoming class profile.

One factor is the economy. A student with all the right credentials may very well opt for a well-rated state university rather than a ‘brand’ name school. Not only is affordable tuition a factor, but also geography can play a part in decision-making. Rather than face a future encumbered by huge loans, many students are opting to cash in on ‘in state’ tuition deals.

Some schools have eliminated early decision programs, which have also impacted on the predictability of incoming classes. Schools like Harvard, Princeton and the University of Virginia disbanded the programs in an effort to level the admissions field. Knowing in advance which applicants were committed to enroll if accepted gave colleges a base to work with in selecting students from the general applicant pool.

Certain schools are ‘self-selecting’, giving admissions deans a clearer picture of just who will apply, get accepted and enroll. A school like Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah enrolls a high percentage of students who share the school’s affiliation with the Church of the Later Day Saints. “The environment here very much coincides with their own personal values,” says BYU spokesperson, Carri Jenkins. In addition to universities with a strong religious association, schools that draw from specific applicant polls, such as military academies and single-sex colleges, have a far more predictable student profile.

What this all means is still being debated, but it has impacted on ‘most popular’ listings in college and university ranking services like U.S. News & World Report. And it has also poked a few holes in commonly held college admissions myths like the lure of a Harvard education – 21% of a recent accepted applicant poll opted for other university choices. “We’ll have to make more offers to get the same size class,” says an admissions officer from another school that recently jettisoned an early decision program. “We will use the waiting list more than usual.”